It is entirely within the control of Democrats as to whether they keep the house this fall. They have a boat-load of legislative victories to tout, a growing economy and an effective if not totally appreciated President who still has higher poll numbers than either party in congress.
And it is incumbent on Democratic and Independent voters to rally themselves and their bases to get out and vote. APATHY IS THE GREATEST ENEMY OF POLITICAL EVOLUTION. The Republicans have NO arguement as to why they should control the house. Most economists agree that deficit reduction can only happen when an economy has much more steam than this one has right now. That takes away their biggest arguement.
it is incumbent upon the media to 'GET IT RIGHT" when analyzing these congressional races, and not to just spout some aphorisms from the past like "the party in power always suffers losses in the mid-term elections." At least give the public credit for knowing when to get rid of a bad incumbent and re-elect a good one. The truth is grey, and the media needs to see these shades of grey and not deal in literal and figurative blacks and whites.
And as far as the jobs situation goes, unemployment levels for whites are between 8 and 9 percent in most places. Lower than the national average, and just about where they were when Reagan was in office after a year and a half.
The largest portion of Americans unemployed are Democrats, both Latino and African American. Their numbers are in the mid teens. These are the people that need to fight their apathy and get out and vote, because a Republican controlled house will DO NOTHING TO HELP YOU. Think getting unemployment was hard now, Just wait. Think government is broken now? Just wait until everything stops entirely if Republicans take the house and the Boehner's, and Bachman's, and Barton's control the discourse.
We don't need divided government between the parties to get anything done. We just need a majority party that knows it's in the majority and has the conviction to stand proudly by the votes they have cast to really help the American people.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The 53-46 Paradigm and the 7% Solution
So, it's a mere 4 months till the midterms, and the pundits are all a twitter about the remote possibility of the Republicans taking back the House. We've seen polls, we've seen disparate numbers, we've seen endless speculation and a parade of stats that both sides are toting out to bolster their viewpoints. There are numbers flying everywhere, but in reality, the only numbers that count are the numbers that were soldified in November 2008. 53-47, the margin by which Mr Obama won the election. The only numbers that matter.
In Ezra Klein's excellent article in the Wash Post http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/research_desk_responds_how_par.html, he makes the point that independents are broken into 3 categories. Those leaning dem, those leaning republican, and those truly swing voters who have no allegiance to either party. Call them the perot voter, the anderson voter, the crist voter, the bloomberg voter. Personally, i fall into the Independent leaning democrat category, though my Jewish 79 year old mom is a Floridian democrat who is thinking about voting for Crist, and therin lies the msot interesting race of all. If Crist comes out of that race with a win, it will shake the political system to it's core, for Crist may be the most credible indie politician since Bloomberg, and together they could pull in a lot of voter power. Maybe in 2016...
What's most obvious to me about all this incumbency/house takeover chatter in this political cycle is that it is not really addressing the only group of voters who truly matter in the next cycle of elections, the 7 percent of indie voters who are truly swing voters. These were the people that Obama so deftly appealed to in 2008, and if the democrats want to not only solidify their control over the house, but ensure their win in 2012, these are the voters that need to be swayed. And in truth, these swing voters might represent the truest sense of what is going on in politics right now.
The fact that Mr Obama's numbers are still hovering around 50 percent, even after all of the momentous and I believe very beneficial change he has already brought to this country says a lot about where these swing voters are. So when it all comes down to it, what do these 7 percent of Americans want? Even though they are a bit disgruntled about things right now, these are intelligent voters, and I do not believe they will be swayed by the Republican know nothing politics of obstruction, but this discourse also lends some momentum to the idea that Mr Obama would be best served by dealing with what these swing voters are really thinking.
Unemployment for whites is about 8 percent, so I'm really at a loss as to why white male voters, a lot of them swing indie voters are being polled as leaning away from Obama and democrats in congress. Something is not right about the pundit's numbers. And I've maintained that if by some disaster the Dems lose the house this fall, it will be because they were terrible campaigners. Martha Coakley anyone? And since deficit eduction is really a red herring in an economy that a number of economists believe needs to grow first and worry about it's debt later, I don't see the 7% really being too hot and bothered about that. So maybe dems have an easier time of getting these indies to vote for them this fall, and maybe Republicans are going to be in for a surprise come November, as long as that crucial 7 percent realizes that's it's truly in THEIR best interests to keep the Dems in control of Congress.
In Ezra Klein's excellent article in the Wash Post http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/research_desk_responds_how_par.html, he makes the point that independents are broken into 3 categories. Those leaning dem, those leaning republican, and those truly swing voters who have no allegiance to either party. Call them the perot voter, the anderson voter, the crist voter, the bloomberg voter. Personally, i fall into the Independent leaning democrat category, though my Jewish 79 year old mom is a Floridian democrat who is thinking about voting for Crist, and therin lies the msot interesting race of all. If Crist comes out of that race with a win, it will shake the political system to it's core, for Crist may be the most credible indie politician since Bloomberg, and together they could pull in a lot of voter power. Maybe in 2016...
What's most obvious to me about all this incumbency/house takeover chatter in this political cycle is that it is not really addressing the only group of voters who truly matter in the next cycle of elections, the 7 percent of indie voters who are truly swing voters. These were the people that Obama so deftly appealed to in 2008, and if the democrats want to not only solidify their control over the house, but ensure their win in 2012, these are the voters that need to be swayed. And in truth, these swing voters might represent the truest sense of what is going on in politics right now.
The fact that Mr Obama's numbers are still hovering around 50 percent, even after all of the momentous and I believe very beneficial change he has already brought to this country says a lot about where these swing voters are. So when it all comes down to it, what do these 7 percent of Americans want? Even though they are a bit disgruntled about things right now, these are intelligent voters, and I do not believe they will be swayed by the Republican know nothing politics of obstruction, but this discourse also lends some momentum to the idea that Mr Obama would be best served by dealing with what these swing voters are really thinking.
Unemployment for whites is about 8 percent, so I'm really at a loss as to why white male voters, a lot of them swing indie voters are being polled as leaning away from Obama and democrats in congress. Something is not right about the pundit's numbers. And I've maintained that if by some disaster the Dems lose the house this fall, it will be because they were terrible campaigners. Martha Coakley anyone? And since deficit eduction is really a red herring in an economy that a number of economists believe needs to grow first and worry about it's debt later, I don't see the 7% really being too hot and bothered about that. So maybe dems have an easier time of getting these indies to vote for them this fall, and maybe Republicans are going to be in for a surprise come November, as long as that crucial 7 percent realizes that's it's truly in THEIR best interests to keep the Dems in control of Congress.
Monday, January 25, 2010
1st Year State of The Union Reality Check
I've waited more than a year to post this blog, specifically because I did not want to get caught up in the wrangling that I knew would take Washington over once a bi-racial President was voted into office. Like the president, I give Mr Obama a B+ for his first year. I've also had the opportunity as any blogger does to watch events unfold and draw conclusions from those events. Following are my conclusions in the form of "Reality Checks".
Reality Check 1: "The Economy" If the president did not put his stimulus package into effect one year ago, we would be rioting in the streets right now. Every economist of worth has admitted that the stimulus package saved this economy from ruin. Hindsight is 20/20, and most of the Stimulus money has yet to be allocated. So i'd advise everyone who voted for Mr Obama, ( that's 53 percent of us) to remain patient. Countries as big as this one don't turn corners in a year. BE PATIENT PEOPLE. Trust that you elected the right man for the right job cause I'd hate to see what this country might look like if John McCain was president and Sarah Palin was one heartbeat away from the presidency. RELAX America. it could be a LOT worse.
Reality Check 2- "Massachusetts Mayhem" - Martha Coakley was the wrong candidate in the wrong race. An Ed Markey might've done a lot better. I'm an independent for Obama, and if I was a voter in Massachusetts last week, i would've been hard pressed to vote for Coakley, although to support this president, I probably would've voted for her. Still, my impulse not to vote for such a terrible candidate would've been strong. But not as strong as my belief that if you do not vote, you do not have any real claim to legitimacy when it comes to political opinions. So I might've taken one for the team on Coakley.
Reality Check 3- " The Republican Resurgence" or THE DNC BETTER GET IT'S ACT together. If the Republicans think that Scott Brown's election was some sort of referendum on Obama, or that because of Scott Browns election, the public's mood is negative on mr obama's initiatives, they might want to dig much deeper into the exit polls from MA. African americans and Hispanics were not courted by coakley and therefore never turned out. What's more, Obama voters stayed home in droves, mostly becasue the DNC never promoted Coakely correctly, and the public saw Coakley for what she was, an elitist, out of touch political operative, who figured she'd win Ted Kennedy's seat easily. Tim Kaine and the Democrats should take a stark political lesson form the MA disaster. Politicians have a tendency to act out of false assessments of situations. Democrats made the mistake of assuming a super majority would be infallible. Republicans have the chance of overestimating the Independent voting public. The American public belongs to no political party, especially now with the rise of maybe 4 or 5 parties over the next decades. Which brings me to my next reality check
Reality check 3:"Dysfunction Junction" or "A great president needs a great congress to get things done". if Mr Obama gets a B+ for his first year in office, congress gets a D. This is significant part of Mr Obama's problem. Any president's problem. Presidents can't be kings. They need congess to get things done, and this congress is more dysfunctional that most. On one side you have the radical racist right wing tea baggers who just hate the fact that we have a bi-racial president, and will use any tool any tactic to derail his smallest initiative. These people are reprehensible, but they are real, and no American should discount their power. You can be killed by a sledgehammer, or a mosquito. These tea baggers are the mosquitoes of American politics. They are small, but organized, and vocal. Sometimes the loudest voice does not represent the largest person. So the democrats need to watch for political malaria from these tea baggers. Then you have the knee jerk liberals who dislike Mr Obama for not doing more. As if the man hasn't done more in one year than most presidents do in 4. The democrats wasted their super majority by sacrificing ideals for conciliation and back room bargaining. No American is going to think giving Ben Nelson 3 million dollars for Medicaid reimbursements to get his vote for health care is a good tactic for insuring fairness in congressional matters. Harry Reid needs to be replaced, that's as simple as it gets. Obama needs a real partner for change leading the senate.
Reality Check 4: "Welcome to the Parties" if I've learned anything over this last tumultuous year in this nation, it's that the concept of a 2 party system is doomed in this country. Right now, by my calculations, we have the possibility of having 5 parties in the country over the next decade or so. The Republicans already show signs of tearing apart into two factions, the tea baggers, and the Moderates. in this equation, Sarah Palin would be a tea bagger, and Olympia Snowe, a moderate. i do not believe there's any more room than that in the Republican ranks. there is no such thing a progressive republican. They're called Blue Dog democrats. Then you have the Independents, dissatisfied voters from both parties who are as fractious as the 2 main parties themselves. Independents move between parties, but I believe their loyalties usually lie with one party or another, simply because there has not been a viable independent candidate ever. that includes Anderson and Perot. Then you have the blue dog democrats and the progressive democrats. Perhaps we're headed for a European style of democracy after all. We're already grid-locked in congress with one party totally in control, and a democratic president. how much worse would it really be with a multi party system in this nation. Perhaps Obama should run as an independent in 2012.
Reality Check 1: "The Economy" If the president did not put his stimulus package into effect one year ago, we would be rioting in the streets right now. Every economist of worth has admitted that the stimulus package saved this economy from ruin. Hindsight is 20/20, and most of the Stimulus money has yet to be allocated. So i'd advise everyone who voted for Mr Obama, ( that's 53 percent of us) to remain patient. Countries as big as this one don't turn corners in a year. BE PATIENT PEOPLE. Trust that you elected the right man for the right job cause I'd hate to see what this country might look like if John McCain was president and Sarah Palin was one heartbeat away from the presidency. RELAX America. it could be a LOT worse.
Reality Check 2- "Massachusetts Mayhem" - Martha Coakley was the wrong candidate in the wrong race. An Ed Markey might've done a lot better. I'm an independent for Obama, and if I was a voter in Massachusetts last week, i would've been hard pressed to vote for Coakley, although to support this president, I probably would've voted for her. Still, my impulse not to vote for such a terrible candidate would've been strong. But not as strong as my belief that if you do not vote, you do not have any real claim to legitimacy when it comes to political opinions. So I might've taken one for the team on Coakley.
Reality Check 3- " The Republican Resurgence" or THE DNC BETTER GET IT'S ACT together. If the Republicans think that Scott Brown's election was some sort of referendum on Obama, or that because of Scott Browns election, the public's mood is negative on mr obama's initiatives, they might want to dig much deeper into the exit polls from MA. African americans and Hispanics were not courted by coakley and therefore never turned out. What's more, Obama voters stayed home in droves, mostly becasue the DNC never promoted Coakely correctly, and the public saw Coakley for what she was, an elitist, out of touch political operative, who figured she'd win Ted Kennedy's seat easily. Tim Kaine and the Democrats should take a stark political lesson form the MA disaster. Politicians have a tendency to act out of false assessments of situations. Democrats made the mistake of assuming a super majority would be infallible. Republicans have the chance of overestimating the Independent voting public. The American public belongs to no political party, especially now with the rise of maybe 4 or 5 parties over the next decades. Which brings me to my next reality check
Reality check 3:"Dysfunction Junction" or "A great president needs a great congress to get things done". if Mr Obama gets a B+ for his first year in office, congress gets a D. This is significant part of Mr Obama's problem. Any president's problem. Presidents can't be kings. They need congess to get things done, and this congress is more dysfunctional that most. On one side you have the radical racist right wing tea baggers who just hate the fact that we have a bi-racial president, and will use any tool any tactic to derail his smallest initiative. These people are reprehensible, but they are real, and no American should discount their power. You can be killed by a sledgehammer, or a mosquito. These tea baggers are the mosquitoes of American politics. They are small, but organized, and vocal. Sometimes the loudest voice does not represent the largest person. So the democrats need to watch for political malaria from these tea baggers. Then you have the knee jerk liberals who dislike Mr Obama for not doing more. As if the man hasn't done more in one year than most presidents do in 4. The democrats wasted their super majority by sacrificing ideals for conciliation and back room bargaining. No American is going to think giving Ben Nelson 3 million dollars for Medicaid reimbursements to get his vote for health care is a good tactic for insuring fairness in congressional matters. Harry Reid needs to be replaced, that's as simple as it gets. Obama needs a real partner for change leading the senate.
Reality Check 4: "Welcome to the Parties" if I've learned anything over this last tumultuous year in this nation, it's that the concept of a 2 party system is doomed in this country. Right now, by my calculations, we have the possibility of having 5 parties in the country over the next decade or so. The Republicans already show signs of tearing apart into two factions, the tea baggers, and the Moderates. in this equation, Sarah Palin would be a tea bagger, and Olympia Snowe, a moderate. i do not believe there's any more room than that in the Republican ranks. there is no such thing a progressive republican. They're called Blue Dog democrats. Then you have the Independents, dissatisfied voters from both parties who are as fractious as the 2 main parties themselves. Independents move between parties, but I believe their loyalties usually lie with one party or another, simply because there has not been a viable independent candidate ever. that includes Anderson and Perot. Then you have the blue dog democrats and the progressive democrats. Perhaps we're headed for a European style of democracy after all. We're already grid-locked in congress with one party totally in control, and a democratic president. how much worse would it really be with a multi party system in this nation. Perhaps Obama should run as an independent in 2012.
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