Mid-terms are Dems to Lose, not Republicans to gain.

It is entirely within the control of Democrats as to whether they keep the house this fall. They have a boat-load of legislative victories to tout, a growing economy and an effective if not totally appreciated President who still has higher poll numbers than either party in congress.

And it is incumbent on Democratic and Independent voters to rally themselves and their bases to get out and vote. APATHY IS THE GREATEST ENEMY OF POLITICAL EVOLUTION. The Republicans have NO arguement as to why they should control the house. Most economists agree that deficit reduction can only happen when an economy has much more steam than this one has right now. That takes away their biggest arguement.

it is incumbent upon the media to 'GET IT RIGHT" when analyzing these congressional races, and not to just spout some aphorisms from the past like "the party in power always suffers losses in the mid-term elections." At least give the public credit for knowing when to get rid of a bad incumbent and re-elect a good one. The truth is grey, and the media needs to see these shades of grey and not deal in literal and figurative blacks and whites.

And as far as the jobs situation goes, unemployment levels for whites are between 8 and 9 percent in most places. Lower than the national average, and just about where they were when Reagan was in office after a year and a half.

The largest portion of Americans unemployed are Democrats, both Latino and African American. Their numbers are in the mid teens. These are the people that need to fight their apathy and get out and vote, because a Republican controlled house will DO NOTHING TO HELP YOU. Think getting unemployment was hard now, Just wait. Think government is broken now? Just wait until everything stops entirely if Republicans take the house and the Boehner's, and Bachman's, and Barton's control the discourse.

We don't need divided government between the parties to get anything done. We just need a majority party that knows it's in the majority and has the conviction to stand proudly by the votes they have cast to really help the American people.

The 53-46 Paradigm and the 7% Solution

So, it's a mere 4 months till the midterms, and the pundits are all a twitter about the remote possibility of the Republicans taking back the House. We've seen polls, we've seen disparate numbers, we've seen endless speculation and a parade of stats that both sides are toting out to bolster their viewpoints. There are numbers flying everywhere, but in reality, the only numbers that count are the numbers that were soldified in November 2008. 53-47, the margin by which Mr Obama won the election. The only numbers that matter.

In Ezra Klein's excellent article in the Wash Post http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/research_desk_responds_how_par.html, he makes the point that independents are broken into 3 categories. Those leaning dem, those leaning republican, and those truly swing voters who have no allegiance to either party. Call them the perot voter, the anderson voter, the crist voter, the bloomberg voter. Personally, i fall into the Independent leaning democrat category, though my Jewish 79 year old mom is a Floridian democrat who is thinking about voting for Crist, and therin lies the msot interesting race of all. If Crist comes out of that race with a win, it will shake the political system to it's core, for Crist may be the most credible indie politician since Bloomberg, and together they could pull in a lot of voter power. Maybe in 2016...

What's most obvious to me about all this incumbency/house takeover chatter in this political cycle is that it is not really addressing the only group of voters who truly matter in the next cycle of elections, the 7 percent of indie voters who are truly swing voters. These were the people that Obama so deftly appealed to in 2008, and if the democrats want to not only solidify their control over the house, but ensure their win in 2012, these are the voters that need to be swayed. And in truth, these swing voters might represent the truest sense of what is going on in politics right now.

The fact that Mr Obama's numbers are still hovering around 50 percent, even after all of the momentous and I believe very beneficial change he has already brought to this country says a lot about where these swing voters are. So when it all comes down to it, what do these 7 percent of Americans want? Even though they are a bit disgruntled about things right now, these are intelligent voters, and I do not believe they will be swayed by the Republican know nothing politics of obstruction, but this discourse also lends some momentum to the idea that Mr Obama would be best served by dealing with what these swing voters are really thinking.

Unemployment for whites is about 8 percent, so I'm really at a loss as to why white male voters, a lot of them swing indie voters are being polled as leaning away from Obama and democrats in congress. Something is not right about the pundit's numbers. And I've maintained that if by some disaster the Dems lose the house this fall, it will be because they were terrible campaigners. Martha Coakley anyone? And since deficit eduction is really a red herring in an economy that a number of economists believe needs to grow first and worry about it's debt later, I don't see the 7% really being too hot and bothered about that. So maybe dems have an easier time of getting these indies to vote for them this fall, and maybe Republicans are going to be in for a surprise come November, as long as that crucial 7 percent realizes that's it's truly in THEIR best interests to keep the Dems in control of Congress.

1st Year State of The Union Reality Check

I've waited more than a year to post this blog, specifically because I did not want to get caught up in the wrangling that I knew would take Washington over once a bi-racial President was voted into office. Like the president, I give Mr Obama a B+ for his first year. I've also had the opportunity as any blogger does to watch events unfold and draw conclusions from those events. Following are my conclusions in the form of "Reality Checks".

Reality Check 1: "The Economy" If the president did not put his stimulus package into effect one year ago, we would be rioting in the streets right now. Every economist of worth has admitted that the stimulus package saved this economy from ruin. Hindsight is 20/20, and most of the Stimulus money has yet to be allocated. So i'd advise everyone who voted for Mr Obama, ( that's 53 percent of us) to remain patient. Countries as big as this one don't turn corners in a year. BE PATIENT PEOPLE. Trust that you elected the right man for the right job cause I'd hate to see what this country might look like if John McCain was president and Sarah Palin was one heartbeat away from the presidency. RELAX America. it could be a LOT worse.

Reality Check 2- "Massachusetts Mayhem" - Martha Coakley was the wrong candidate in the wrong race. An Ed Markey might've done a lot better. I'm an independent for Obama, and if I was a voter in Massachusetts last week, i would've been hard pressed to vote for Coakley, although to support this president, I probably would've voted for her. Still, my impulse not to vote for such a terrible candidate would've been strong. But not as strong as my belief that if you do not vote, you do not have any real claim to legitimacy when it comes to political opinions. So I might've taken one for the team on Coakley.

Reality Check 3- " The Republican Resurgence" or THE DNC BETTER GET IT'S ACT together. If the Republicans think that Scott Brown's election was some sort of referendum on Obama, or that because of Scott Browns election, the public's mood is negative on mr obama's initiatives, they might want to dig much deeper into the exit polls from MA. African americans and Hispanics were not courted by coakley and therefore never turned out. What's more, Obama voters stayed home in droves, mostly becasue the DNC never promoted Coakely correctly, and the public saw Coakley for what she was, an elitist, out of touch political operative, who figured she'd win Ted Kennedy's seat easily. Tim Kaine and the Democrats should take a stark political lesson form the MA disaster. Politicians have a tendency to act out of false assessments of situations. Democrats made the mistake of assuming a super majority would be infallible. Republicans have the chance of overestimating the Independent voting public. The American public belongs to no political party, especially now with the rise of maybe 4 or 5 parties over the next decades. Which brings me to my next reality check

Reality check 3:"Dysfunction Junction" or "A great president needs a great congress to get things done". if Mr Obama gets a B+ for his first year in office, congress gets a D. This is significant part of Mr Obama's problem. Any president's problem. Presidents can't be kings. They need congess to get things done, and this congress is more dysfunctional that most. On one side you have the radical racist right wing tea baggers who just hate the fact that we have a bi-racial president, and will use any tool any tactic to derail his smallest initiative. These people are reprehensible, but they are real, and no American should discount their power. You can be killed by a sledgehammer, or a mosquito. These tea baggers are the mosquitoes of American politics. They are small, but organized, and vocal. Sometimes the loudest voice does not represent the largest person. So the democrats need to watch for political malaria from these tea baggers. Then you have the knee jerk liberals who dislike Mr Obama for not doing more. As if the man hasn't done more in one year than most presidents do in 4. The democrats wasted their super majority by sacrificing ideals for conciliation and back room bargaining. No American is going to think giving Ben Nelson 3 million dollars for Medicaid reimbursements to get his vote for health care is a good tactic for insuring fairness in congressional matters. Harry Reid needs to be replaced, that's as simple as it gets. Obama needs a real partner for change leading the senate.


Reality Check 4: "Welcome to the Parties" if I've learned anything over this last tumultuous year in this nation, it's that the concept of a 2 party system is doomed in this country. Right now, by my calculations, we have the possibility of having 5 parties in the country over the next decade or so. The Republicans already show signs of tearing apart into two factions, the tea baggers, and the Moderates. in this equation, Sarah Palin would be a tea bagger, and Olympia Snowe, a moderate. i do not believe there's any more room than that in the Republican ranks. there is no such thing a progressive republican. They're called Blue Dog democrats. Then you have the Independents, dissatisfied voters from both parties who are as fractious as the 2 main parties themselves. Independents move between parties, but I believe their loyalties usually lie with one party or another, simply because there has not been a viable independent candidate ever. that includes Anderson and Perot. Then you have the blue dog democrats and the progressive democrats. Perhaps we're headed for a European style of democracy after all. We're already grid-locked in congress with one party totally in control, and a democratic president. how much worse would it really be with a multi party system in this nation. Perhaps Obama should run as an independent in 2012.

DAWNING - A POEM TO COMMEMORATE THE ELECTION OF BARACK OBAMA

DAWNING

In a cold place, some warmth.
In a dark place, a glimmer of light.
In a time of takers, in a new world of pariahs’s, an arrival of illumination.
In a room with 13 tables, arguments, passions, quill pens, and courage.

In a field of others dreams, the nightmares of rope and chains.
In the sun, no shade, in the winter, pain and longing.
In a lanky, lovely, lonely man, a spark of humanity that becomes a bonfire of revolution, maiming brothers, splitting rivers, dividing reason, then healing wounds with soft touch and hard loving.

Four score and then some later, self aware, the sunlight beckons us towards noon.
Dark forces evolve, rise up, are met, then lay down.
Science is unleashed on the world, and the spectacle of man’s leap into forever almost blinds ua.

In times of turmoil, a still voice is easiest to hear.
In a world of misunderstanding, a steady truth can meet any obstacle.
In a place of revolution, evolution.
In an eagle’s talon, an olive branch.

So much to think about at this moment.
This pushing, unyielding moment, calling us to a higher mind, a more perfect heart.
So much to think about with the sun in our eyes, the stars blocked out.
Still we know they are there.

If a moment can be captured, let us set it free.
If an idea can catch fire, let’s help it to burn a steady truth.
If a nation can come together to better itself, let us in earnest begin this process.
For we are a nation of process.
Let us now join together to begin a new process.
The process of becoming, the process of forgiving, the process of unfolding, the process of dawning.



Rick S. Mordecon

Swearing in American presidents on the Constitution, not the bible

As Barack Obama gets ready to take office, a thought has been plaguing me. Why are our presidents and for that matter all of our elected officials sworn in on the Bible? We are not a Theocracy, we are a Democracy, and the guiding tenets and principals of that Democracy are not laid out in the Bible, but in the constitution of the United States of America. In fact, if we adhere literally to the bible we would not have much of a democracy at all. We'd have a nation which sacrifices it's sons, turns people to stone, and accomplishes most things with some sort of violence. And there's the point. Besides the turning to stone part, we as a nation HAVE sometimes adhered to the laws of the Bible, more often than not at the peril of the laws of our nation. We are not answerable to a higher power as Americans. We are answerable to our constitution and our own moral compasses. I am calling for a changing of the guard. if Mr Obama truly wants to swear his allegiance to a worthy American document which protects all of us, not just the religiously faithful, he and every public office holder after him should have their hands squarely placed on the original copy of the constitution of the United States.

Bush's final finger to the American People

As George Bush begins his series of long anticipated farewell interviews, I can't help but look back on his tenure and wonder why at the end of his soiled reign, that we see this economic meltdown. To those ends, I went and looked to see where the Stock market was when King George took office, and wouldn't you know it, it was just about where it is today, as if for the last year, every one of george's rat's were taking all their greedily earned profits out of 8 years of an unregulated corrupt marketplace they not only created, but nurtured and cared for. Whether it be from the mortgage companies they propped up to issue junk bond mortgages to unwitting or duped homeowners just to keep the wheels greased, or the wall street sweetheart deals that gave huge payouts to wall street companies like Bear Sterns and AIG, Bush and his band of rapists never demanded accountability and ignored the word regulation. To say he and his cronies raped this nation would be an understatement. We were the unwilling participants in the greatest raping of our nation and her resources and wealth since this nation began. Supposedly, he's concerned about his legacy. Well, here's part of it. Almost a trillion dollar deficit. 6.8% unemployment and rising, 401 K's wiped out. The big 3 begging for a lifeline after years of mismanagement. 2 wars, hundreds of thousands in Iraq dead, not to mention over 4000 of our brave warriors. Rights taken away, government bloated and sick. Now, we're left holding George's smelly bag. One thing that's known about Bush. He really never wanted to be president. Bush and his cronies aren't just rats leaving a sinking ship. They torpedoed the ship first. Let's just thank the lord for two term limits.

Obama's reshaping of the Supreme Court

The one thing that msot people have not spoken about regarding Barack Obama's amazing election win, is how he will shape the Supreme Court over his first term. Justices Steven's, Kennedy, Souter and Ginsburg are all elderly, with Stevens and Ginsburg the eldest Justices. This is an amazing turn of good fortune for America. With his selections, Obama will shape the course of the court for a generation, and then we'll see some REAL change. This nation rises and falls by the strength of it's people and the fairness of it's laws. Reading about his law school years, and some articles on the subject, it seems Obama would choose centrist type judges like Souter, more than Liberal types like Thurgood Marshall. For his second pick, he might go for someone a little more interesting, like a politician like Jennifer Granholm, or Laurence Tribe, or someone like Cass Sunstein, also from Harvard. Either way, look for an empathizer, more than a demogogue. Whoever ends up with the job, we know they won't be at all like Clarence Thomas, who Obama said was the justice he thought was least qualified to sit on the court.

Socitalism American Style

Welcome to the new American standard, no longer dictated by a free wheeling, freedom loving market economy. We are now Socitalists people. We're not a Capitalist Democracy anymore, and maybe that's a good thing. However, we're not true socialists either. Only the banking industry is being nationalized, not every sector of the economy, or the infrastrucutre of the country. Still, we as Americans are now on a new road, a road we are paving even as we move along the higway. We are on the verge of creating a whole new governemtn system. SOCITALISM.

Some might liken us to the British, or other European Social democracies, but we're not like that at all. Those nations all had strong moonarchy's, so in essence, they were accustomed to a strong central authority controlling everyday aspects of their lives. But we're also not like true socialists, simply becasue of the way we became America.

Our struggle was a political and to a lesser degree, a Religious one, and economic and religious freedom have always been cornerstones of our democracy. We rebelled against a strong authority figure in Geroge III. Most if not all of our early struggles were over taxes, and unfair levies imposed on an unruly colony to bring them in line. We as Americans have always hated a strong authority figure telling us what to do. That's why we created a tripartate sytem of checks and balances among the three branches of government. We are able to be influenced by great leaderhsip, but a king or queen, or chancellor, would never work here. We might prefer anarchy to that.

The things in our society which can be nationalized, will be. Health Care for one. Even though the European sytems are sometimes clogged and slow, nationalized health care is inevitable, especially now with the partial nationalization of the banking system. We're already owners in the banking industry. Maybe Health Care should go the same way.

But take heart Americans, we are not doomed, just evolving. The founding fathers, in their wisdom, never really stated what this nation was other than a demcoracy, and as we all know, democracies stand or fall by the power, persuasion, and temper of their electorates. Over the years we became a Capitalist Democracy. For the past 28 years, ever since the Reagan era of serious dismantling of the regulatory system, and more specifically over the last 8 years, we saw that rampant run amok Capitalism eats itself alive, and our savings along with it. We're optimistic, but we're not stupid. Those days are over, and good riddance to them.

Right now we have no choice, We need to embrace the new, and say goodbye to the old. History creatres it's own narrative, a narrative we are subconsciously writing everyday. Instead of worrying and hand wringing, we need to embrace this new Socitalist order, and make it what we, the new owners of America want it to be.

THE REPUBLICANS AND THE REIGNITION OF THE COLD WAR

THE REPUBLICANS, AND THE REIGNITION OF THE COLD WAR
Content: When the Iraq war started I remember saying to a friend of mine that I was surprised the Russians didn't do more to either try and stop us, or really give us trouble once we went in. After all, they had a lot at stake. Contracts, large sums of money, and strategic concerns. But they were in tranistion, and couldn't really focus on the Iraq situation as much as they might have liked. The Russians stayed out of it.
Now we find ourselves 7 years down the road. Putin has picked Medvedev as his successor, and the price of oil has skyrocketed. Now Russia is an Oil power, and she wants to be taken seriously.

For John McCain and Sarah Palin, the reality of a future world with Russia extends to bringing its former satellites like Ukraine and Georgia into the NATO fold, and boxing the Russians in at every turn.

To me, what's so unsettling about Palin's response to the Georgia question from ABC last week, besides her obvious ignorance of the most basic of foreign policy ideas, was her readiness, without obviously knowing anything about world affairs to commit one of the worst errors in foreign policy. Don't arouse the sleeping bear. Napoleon and Hitler both learned this lesson in the most brutal of ways.

Everyone knows that Russia isn't going away, and as Tom Friedman so aptly put it today on GPS, we're going to have to live in a world where we need Russia to get anything done. From oil to Europe, to engaging the Iranians, to dealing with loose nuclear materials, to getting anything done at the UN, we are destined to live in a world with a more aware Russia, a bolder Kremlin, and a smarter and more savvy Russian population.

If the Republicans succeed this Fall, A reignition of the Cold War could ensue, something that at the least would be counterproductive, and at the most utterly insane. Kennedy stared down Russia at a time when the US was very confident and strong. Mr McCain and Mrs Palin would face a much richer Russia at a time when we are in financial crisis, when our military is stretched t it's limit, and our nation is split down the middle idealogically.

Mr McCain and Mrs Palin seem to have little regard for history. An engaged Russia is a happy Russia. Wave a trout in the face of the bear, and you will get it taken away. Try and provoke her, and she'll take your head off. Perhaps Mr McCain and Mrs Palin should stop their sabre rattling, because as we all know, the Russians are much better at Sabre's than we are.

PALIN AND MCCAIN ARE SIMPLY WRONG FOR OUR COUNTRY

i'm a bit confused at this whole Sarah Palin thing. I know why conservative, Republican, right to life women would vote for her, but why McCain would think any Democratic women from the Hillary camp would somehow miraculously give up their rights on everything from a womans right to choose, to equal pay rights, to health care rights because he chose a woman as his VP pick is absurd, and shows just how uninformed McCain and his people are.

Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton. She didn't shatter, or even dent the glass ceiling. Clinton got 18 million votes. For that matter, Obama got even more. No one has voted for Sarah Palin in this election yet. That's her greatest weakness. She is fluff, someone for McCain to oggle at when he thinks the cameras aren't looking, and a bone throw to the Republican base to keep them quiet and happy. How can any mother who claims to be so concerned about her children never explain the idea of contraception to her very pretty teenager daughter? Why is a public official CCing her private citizen husband on State business. How can a woman who claims to be a law abiding figure subvert her own governments rules to nefariously arrange to fire her sisters ex husband from the Alaska state trooper force. The fact is that John Mccain and especially Sarah Palin WILL appoint justices to the supreme court who will severely curtail if not totally revoke YOUR right to choose?

Now, i'm a guy, and I don't have to face the abortion issues the way women do, but if I was an Independent or Democratic woman, I would never be able to forgive myself if I voted for Palin just because she's a woman. Make no mistake about it, she's a right wing Republican first and woman second, or as she likes to say " A pitt bull with lipstick". Not an attractive look, and definately a very unattractive Vice -presidential candidate, and even worse, a possibly nightmarish president. Women out there better get smart. she might be one of you physically, but that's where the similarity ends.

The Lost Generation Finds It's Place

All my life, I've wondered what MY generation would accomplish. I'm one of those tweeners, born after the korean war, and before vietnam. We aren't baby boomers, we aren't generation X'er's, we we're the lost generation. Until now. Finally, I see what my generation has accomplished. As Obama spoke tonight, all of us in the Lost Generation will have finally heard our own voices in one of our own. We were the kids that watched the vietnam war on TV right after Batman. We were the generation that saw Nixon fall as we waited in line during the first oil embargo. We were smart, disillusioned, and frustrated at the unjustices we saw going on around us, but felt helpless to do anything about it. We weren't eliglible for the Vietnam draft, but we saw our brothers just miss being called, and our parents threaten to send them to Canada. We were witness to the struggles and success of our grandparents, and the heartbreaks of our parents as they watched JFK being buried, barely one or two years old ourselves. Tonight, i was proud to say that Barack Obama is my peer. finally, the lost generation,and all generations have thier voice back.

WHAT'S SO SUPER ABOUT SUPERDELEGATES?

Ok, so now we're in the twilight of this campaign. Hillary Clinton has finally stuck not only her foot, but her leg and her torso into her mouth over this insulting Bobby Kennedy related debacle. We know that not only can't she be the nominee in every metric in everyones account book, she should NEVER be the nominee. You just can't say something like that and expect to be the president. So, now Even Hillary Clinton knows she can't and won't ever be the nominee for president.

That begs the next question. What are the superdelegates waiting for? it's almost as if the remaining superdelegates, Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi included should at least have the political guile, stamina and fortitude to say who they are for in this campaign, lest we remind the remaining superdelegates that a brokered convention at this time in our history would be far worse than riots in the streets of Chicago in 68.

it would mean a drastic split in out electorate, a rift that might never heal, and even worse, a democracy in violation of it's own reason for existing. So you democratic superdelegates, whoever you are, get off your butts, and make a decision. The American people are tired of indecisive politicians, and if we have to we'll rewrite the democratic rulebooks to make sure this kind of ridiculousness never happens again. Remember, you work for us. And one part of your job is making decisions. So, like the ad says. JUST DO IT.

WHO POLLS THE POLLSTERS?

Does it seem to anyone else but me that polls and pollsters have had an inordinately important place in this particular election? There are as many polls as opinions out there, and not surprisingly, every person I've spoken to about this issue has never been polled themselves. So, who are these pollsters, who are they polling, what are they doing to our democracy, and how can we find some way of dealing with their inaccuracies?

Just look at Pennsylvania for example. By the time we finished that election, there were polls ranging from everything like who drinks beer, to who hunts, to who said their last hail Mary, to how many people think Barack Obama should've played basketball to bowling, to the 13 percent of voters who said race played an important role in their choices. Now come on. Who is really going to admit to a pollster that they're racist, or misogynistic.

The fact is, polls hurt everyone in our democracy. In the founding fathers time there were no polls. The first presidential poll was taken in 1824, just as James Monroe was leaving the presidency, and Andrew Jackson, a decorated military hero was about to become president. But not until the advent of television, and more recently, 24 hour news cycle TV has the polling craze become not only trite, and inaccurate, but divisive, and undermining.

If pollsters and polls wanted to make sure they were not only fair, but accurate, then they should be as transparent as they expect their government to be. Biased pre-vote polling does more harm to the system than good, and as far the average American is concerned, all polling is biased as it is by nature a creator of false or misrepresented opinion. And we easily see what can happen when pollsters and conflicts of interest collide, as the case was with Mr. Penn and his embarrassing exit from the Clinton campaign.

it's like asking the wolves to watch over the sheep. How can we the American people feel like our best interests in choosing a candidate for president can be served by trusting voices on phones from organizations we've never heard of, sponsored by media conglomerates and news organizations looking for both credibility and ratings in a 24 hour news cycle world.

That's if we're polled at all. There are hundreds of millions of people in America, and I think to take a hundred or two hundred of them, ask a set of skewered and misleading questions, interpret the answers in ways that favor your constituency, does every American an injustice and a disservice. and not only that, in a 21st political economy, when every 8 year old has a cell phone, how do we accept as accurate polls that only service land-line based Americans.

I know polls are here to stay, and on some level they help candidates see who's out there, and where they might be leaning and what they might be thinking, but the operative word there is "Might". We humans are a fickle bunch, and some of us will vote against a black man, or a woman, or an older man, because we feel compelled to, not because we're told to by some nameless faceless possibly fictitious people. We change our minds a lot, even up until the time we're getting ready to pull a voting lever. We don't need hundreds of pollsters making millions of dollars a year off of our thoughtful indecisions.

Polls can never account for the individual desire to make a decision without being pressured. That's when we humans make our best decisions. Those people that are deciding their votes based on polls deserve the presidents they get from misleading pollsters. Unfortunately those of us who believe in the independent spirit of the ability to change your government, as idealistic as that may sound, are never the ones polled.

So all you erstwhile pollsters out there beware. You're not seeing the big picture, and you're not really aware of what a majority of us think. And that makes you endangered species. Maybe we need a poll on that.